1. Develop a time series plot. What pattern exists in the data? (10) 

2. Develop a moving average model with k = 3. (10) 

3. Develop an exponential smoothing model with alpha = 0.2. (10) 

4. Develop a linear regression model with time and sales. (do not use quarters, time = 1,2,3,…. 16) (20) 

5. Develop a regression model with quarters. Use 3 dummy variables for quarter 1, 2 and 3 respectively. (20) 

6. Compare the models built in question 2,3,4 and 5 using MAE, MSE and MAPE. Identify the best model. (10)